By Amnon Lord
Obama’s visit earlier this year suggested that he recognizes the current unique place of Israel in the Middle East, however, John Kerry’s political carousel along with the explicit anti-Israeli policy of Europe, and the betrayal in Egypt, bring one conclusion: America has become dangerous to itself and its friends.
Translated by Viktoria Lymar
Edited by Steven Stenzler
11 August 2013
Experts are confident that a military assault on Iran is not at all among President Obama’s cards. It’s solely Israel that retains the threat of a military solution.
“The odds that Barack Obama will unilaterally strike Iran's nuclear weapons program by the end of his term are probably slim to none.” This is an estimate of Aaron David Miller, an expert on the Middle East, Israel and the current U.S. administration. “The president's objective is to leave Washington without having to wage a costly military strike, and without being accused of allowing Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.”*
Danielle Pletka, an expert on strategic affairs, well known in Israel, too, answered the question of whether Obama will attack or not, like this: “I believe there's little to no chance... it is clear that the administration is waiting until it is completely certain Iran has an actual weapon... Barack Obama wishes to leave office as the man who dramatically altered the domestic economic landscape, not as the man who bombed Iran.”*
Matthew Duss from the Center for American Progress, which is close to the Obama administration, said that the likelihood that Obama attacks militarily are very low, while not zero. The only specialist in a survey conducted by the political news website Real Clear Politics who gives some chance that Obama will turn to the military option against Iran has been actually a hawk in the bunch, Reuel Marc Gerecht. In his opinion, “The only likely catalyst for an American strike: Iran's supreme leader. A misstep by him -- and he makes them frequently -- could still provoke Mr. Obama to do something that he does not want to do.”*
Our acquaintance Meir Javedanfar opines that anyway the trend in the Iranian government is to go for the solution of the economic problems, and it cannot do so without removing the sanctions. “One of the biggest reasons why Ayatollah Khamenei allowed Rouhani to be elected -- and did not falsify the election results as he did in 2009 -- is because of the sanctions,”* asserts Javedanfar.
All these assessments on the part of a variety of American experts of different ideological colors, inform that the Americans are not going to do a thing about Iran, and plausibly will also try to prevent Israel from doing something. This picture is completely different from that which various security and policy experts have been depicting for us over the last two years.
America Has Become a Danger
The best of publicists, retired generals and also the President of the country have given their word to the Jews that at the times of trouble, indeed, Obama promised and he would deliver as well. He just needs to first prove to the American people that he did everything to avoid an attack.
[We] have to reconcile with the fact that waving a military sword as a means of pressure on the Iranians is in the hands of Israel alone. There is an argument that the cowardly, treacherous, and incomprehensible conduct of the Americans in the Middle East could be explained by a shift in the strategic center of gravity of U.S. foreign policy. They are leaving the Mideast and moving the pivot point to Asia. Nevertheless, there’s another theory altogether. As a reminder, in light of the collapse of the Arab states into themselves, it seemed to make sense that the status of Israel was rising.
Even if it’s not to the liking of the Europeans or President Obama. However, apparently not. In Europe and the United States, in control today are regimes that do not recognize the accepted concept of a “national interest.” This is especially noticeable in the United States. Obama’s visit earlier this year suggested that he recognizes the current unique place of Israel in the Middle East, yet John Kerry’s political carousel along with the explicit anti-Israeli policy of Europe, and the betrayal in Egypt, bring to one conclusion: America has become dangerous to itself and its friends.
Original Hebrew article:
Image credit: Ma'ariv/Roni Gordon, 8/3/2013.
The Hebrew text reads: Cave paintings of the future (if Iran obtains nuclear weapons)