Iran Is Nearing the Point of No Return 

 

IsraelMa'ariv

By Dr. Chelo Rosenberg 

 

For all the reasons described above and many more not listed here, the possibility cannot be excluded that Iran is closer than ever before to the point of no return: either the West’s military action or the forsaking of the nuclear project. 

 

Translated by Viktoria Lymar

Edited by Steven Stenzler 

 

10 April 2012 

 

 

Obama’s announcement conveying that the U.S. will be ready to reconcile with civilian nuclear energy was a honey trap. This way, he put to a test the seriousness of Tehran’s declarations.

 

It’s not been 24 hours since President Obama issued his minimum requirements in the negotiations with Iran - and here, its leaders have already published an unambiguous notice: Iran won’t stop the uranium enrichment, won’t shut down the reactor in Qom and won’t remove from its territory the already enriched uranium. 

The Iranian answer was very expected – and no one, in all likelihood, imagined that Iran’s leaders would surrender their heads with so much ease. On the other hand, the Iranian response, before the convening of the Istanbul meeting, is rather driving it closer to the point of no return: intensive activities for the overthrow of the present regime. Should the [super] powers act economically or militarily, or in combination – it doesn’t matter – the regime in Iran sentences itself to a heavy penalty. 

The information and the disinformation switch places often. For obvious reasons, there’s no absolute certainty about the goings-on in Iran. Over-reliance on the intelligence bodies and their assessment would translate into critical mistakes, both at the tactical and the strategic level. One thing is irrefutable: despite the pessimism of various sources around the world apropos the effectiveness of the current sanctions and those yet to come, [they] influence the Iranian society categorically. 

How soon these impacts will bring about the collapse of the regime, or the people’s uprising, is hard to estimate. However, Iran won’t be able to deal over time with a state of affairs where the economic boycott on it depletes the economy and puts the country into a dire economic crisis.

 

The Refusal Has Led to an Atmosphere of Suspicion

 

The Iranian leadership’s thumbs down to Obama’s outlines is a terrible mistake, and this is for the better. This rejection creates even more of a suspicious climate toward the intentions of the Iranian government, and thus, approaches the deadline when the free world will have to operate through other means in order to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear capability. 

The statement of the American President that the U.S. would be ready to make peace with the nuclear program for civilian purposes if only Iran abandons the military nuke programs, has been a honey trap. In fact, President Obama has given a test to the seriousness of the Iranian leaders’ manifestos, according to which their entire nuclear project is intended for civilian purposes.

The logic says that if this is really a genuine intent, Iran should have embraced Obama’s plan with both hands.

 

Obama’s Pledge

 

Recently, there occurred some highly interesting developments – even positive from Israel’s vantage point. First, Obama explicitly proclaimed that the U.S. won’t accept a nuclear Iran and will thwart any such possibility. This kind of commitment by the U.S. president is of paramount importance and should not be taken lightly. 

Secondly, other “tunes” began to be heard from the side of Russia, which was determined not to allow the West to take measures against Iran. It could be that beneath the surface, a dialog with the Russians is taking place in order to reach a minimum agreement, acceptable to both sides.

It may be that the Russians will agree, as they announced in the past, that they too are not willing to see Iran possess a nuclear – military capacity. Unless proven otherwise, it can’t be ruled out at all that Russia would change its stance in return for other achievements offered to it by the West. Such things have happened.

 

Iran Doesn’t Have a Back

 

Iran’s allies are finding themselves in a very tough situation. The Syrian regime is going to fall, even if different experts are skeptic. Assad is not busy with Iran’s status but instead, with his survival. He knows very well what awaits him should he decide to provoke Israel – therefore, he sits quietly. 

So do both Hezbollah and Hamas. These two organizations have no interest to enter at the moment into a confrontation with Israel – because Israel, released from the shackles of the world, is capable of inflicting an unprecedented disaster both in Lebanon and in Gaza.

For all the reasons described above and many more not listed here, the possibility cannot be excluded that Iran is closer than ever before to the point of no return: either the West’s military action or the forsaking of the nuclear project.

 

Original Hebrew article:

http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/356/714.html